Economic Growth Despite Global Downturn
Map of China Courtesy of Central Intelligence Agency
China aims to experience 8% economic growth in 2010, even after accounting for the global downturn. Since Beijing has targeted 8% economic growth in the past several years and has reached its goal each year, analysts consider China’s target as reasonable.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects China to exceed its goal, experiencing at least 9% economic growth in 2010. Meanwhile, the IMF only expects India to grow by 6.4%, Canada by 2.1%, Japan by 1.7%, the United States by 1.5%, and the United Kingdom and France by 0.9%.
China expects to experience economic growth because of implemented government stimulus measures and increased industrial production. Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong states: “Based on the central government’s target for around 8% economic growth, we’re aiming for around 11% growth in industrial output.” Since industrial output increased 19.2% in the previous year, it is possible for industrial input to increase 11% this year.
Wallerstein (2004) highlights three instances where strong nation-states achieved dominance over other nation-states: the United Provinces or Netherlands in the mid-seventeenth century, Great Britain in the mid-nineteenth, and the United States in the mid-twentieth. Currently, the United States is experiencing a period of hegemonic decline, as evidenced by its growing economic burden partially resulting from its military engagements.
Given this, we might question: Which nation-state will become the next hegemon? Some scholars hypothesize that China will become the next hegemon, especially considering its projected economic growth in the future. Others contend that some other entity, such as a collective of transnational corporations, might gain hegemony. However, many – including myself – consider this possibility to be improbable since transnational corporations lack military power.
Reference
Wallerstein, Immanuel M. 2004. World-Systems Analysis: An Introduction. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
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Fabulous point about TNCs and military power. In some instances they do have military power (e.g. Blackwater–which is both a corporation and a military power), but TNCs still lack legitimacy to determine when to use their military power. This has been highlighted in popular media, especially the 2009 season of “24”. Is it possible to imagine a case where TNCs might legitimately engage in military action? So far it does not seem likely, but this might be a key element to the shifting hegemonic power structure.
Keri